Presumed 2028 presidential hopeful Vice President J.D. Vance and U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent have a plan to supercharge the economy. Could it work?
The vice president and Treasury secretary believe they can make economic growth outrun America’s debt. If they succeed, they might also reshape the 2028 presidential race.
Vice President J.D. Vance and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent say the Trump administration has a plan to get the economy growing faster than the national debt. With gross federal debt passing $40 trillion and annual interest expenses exceeding $1 trillion, it is an ambitious promise — but not an inherently implausible one.
The objective is not necessarily to eliminate the debt. If nominal GDP grows faster than federal borrowing, debt gradually declines as a percentage of the economy. That was part of the formula that reduced America’s debt burden after World War II.
Bessent’s strategy appears to combine stronger business investment, deregulation, domestic energy production, tariff revenue, spending restraint and aggressive efforts to eliminate fraud. The administration is also allowing companies to deduct investments in factories and equipment immediately. That reduces federal revenue initially, but Bessent argues that it will encourage construction, expand the tax base and produce stronger growth later.
There is evidence for his optimism.
Business fixed investment increased at an 8.4 percent annual rate in the second quarter, including a 15.2 percent increase in equipment investment. Overall real GDP, however, grew by only 1.5 percent. The slingshot, to borrow Bessent’s metaphor, may be pulled back, but it has not yet launched.
Bessent is also trying to stabilize the bond market by expanding Treasury buybacks. These operations can improve liquidity and place downward pressure on long-term yields, but they do not erase debt. Treasury is largely exchanging one form of borrowing for another.
The harder part will be reducing the deficit.
The Congressional Budget Office now estimates that Washington will borrow approximately $2.1 trillion during fiscal 2026. Recovering fraudulent payments and collecting tariffs could help, but neither is likely to close a hole that large. Unless Congress restrains spending — and eventually confronts the growth of major entitlement programs — the administration cannot rely on faster growth alone.
Still, if the plan works, the political beneficiary may be Vance.
Vice presidents rarely control economic policy directly, but Vance has attached himself to the project through his fraud task force and his public promotion of Bessent’s strategy. A strong economy, falling interest rates and a declining debt-to-GDP ratio in 2027 and 2028 would allow Vance to campaign as the heir to Trump’s policies with a record of his own.
Could he choose Bessent as his running mate? It is possible. Bessent would provide financial credibility, reassurance to markets and a more conventional economic temperament. But running mates are normally selected for political reach, not technical expertise. Bessent might be more valuable remaining at Treasury — or eventually leading the Federal Reserve.
Marco Rubio remains the more natural vice-presidential possibility, assuming he does not run himself. If Rubio helps resolve major international problems — particularly Ukraine and Iran — his standing could rise rapidly. Recent hypothetical polling has even shown Rubio performing somewhat better than Vance against several possible Democratic nominees.
That creates two possible succession stories: Vance as the champion of domestic renewal and Rubio as the statesman who restored stability abroad. A successful Bessent plan would give Vance the advantage. Failure would leave an opening for Rubio — or someone else — to argue that the next Republican president needs more than optimistic economic projections.
(Contributing writer, Brooke Bell)